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How Long Can the "Special Express" Run

Finally, there is one more question that needs answering. During Xiaoping's south China tour last year he pointed out it is essential to grasp the opportunities to speed up reform and development, open the doors still wider and concentrate our efforts on running our own affairs in the best possible way. In his report to the 14th Party Congress Jiang Zemin emphasized the idea to speed things up and raised the targeted annual GNP growth rate during the 1990s from 6 percent to 8-9 percent.
Such a high rate of increase sounds encouraging at a time when the world is experiencing a universal slump. But quite a few people are worried. They would ask : What is the foundation for such unusually high speed ? How long can the "Special Express" last ? Will the brakes be slammed on like what happened in 1989 ?

Ma : During the 12 years from 1959 to 1970, Japan saw its annual GNP increase rate exceeding 10 percent for nine years. China GNP has also registered rather impressive growth over the last 14 years of reform, but we are still trailing behind Korea and in some years, we were even slower than Thailand. Our neighbouring countries are all developing rapidly. If we fail to pick up speed, we will lag behind. Low speed poses not only an economic problem but also a political problem. Backwardness means to place our country at the beck and call of others. All rising industrial nations and regions in Asia, including the "four small dragons," had recorded high speed development during the take-off stage of their economies.

>Gao : If we look at the speed of development in previous years, 1984-88 was a period of high speed growth, reaching an annual increase of 9 percent, some-times even surpassing 10 percent. In 1989 the rate dwindled to 3 percent increase left a big leeway, with the idea to quadruple the 1981 GNP by the end of this century (which means a per-capita figure of US $800-1,000). I think we have the following favourable conditions to increase the rate to 8-9 percent :

1) The 14 years of construction have provided a relatively sound material foundation. So far as total output is concerned, some of our products have reached advanced global levels.
2) The aim of reform has become more clear, and the growing market economy will inevitably bring new and greater vitality to the economy.
3) The door has been wider open and the investment environment is improving, attracting a large flock of investors from overseas.
4) After more than a decade of reform and opening, we have accumulated experience and brought up a vast contingent of entrepreneurs well-versed in technology and management.
5) Industrialization is under way in China. Compared with developed countries, we need to establish large numbers of enterprises for many industries. The development of these industries will provide a great impetus for the growth of various enterprises.
6) High-speed growth is the strong wish of the people of the entire country ; therefore 8-9 percent increase rate is no problem.

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Tong : Moreover, the international environment is more favourable to the development of our economy. We must grasp the opportunity to speed up progress.

Fan : With regard to this problem, I fully agree with the views of Minoru Kobayashi, member of the 21st Century Japan-China Friendship Society and a notes expert on China. He said, "China must reach an annual increase rate of 9 percent. The problem is its content. If this figure is meant only for quantitative growth, it will be a dangerous proposition. Recently China's economy has been rapidly taking off but increases in consumption and prices are not too high. Only the cost of the means of production is rising a bit more rapidly. I think this the outcome of China's increased supply ability and economic efficiency gained through competition. I do not thin the saying that the present excessive speed can easily run out hand holds much water. China is very careful in bringing down inflation, with rather satisfactory results. China's access to information and endurance today are much better than in 1988. Therefore there is no reason to be overcautious."

Kobayashi went on to say, "Let's compare China's economy to a car. The engine of China's economy is running with vigour and the steering wheel is no problem. But the most important thing is the brake. Only with a good brake can a car run fast. By the brake I mean the financial system. What concerns me is how good the brake is and how it is used. I hope Chinese government departments will consider this. If the car is to speed up, expressways are needed, but expressways can only be built gradually."

The proposal of Kobayashi is a very earnest one. At present, we take measures as soon as a problem arises, rather than tackle the problem when it has already emerged as we did in the past. I believe the "Special Express" will reach the victorious end.

I have taken too much of your time. Let's stop here. Please allow me to express my heartfelt thanks once again.

 

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