|
Stock market volatility
touches every participant directly/indirectly in the capital
market. General feeling is that the stock markets worldwide
have become very fragile in the recent past on account of
various developments such as Asian crisis. Brazil Real fall
and Russian debacle. Many far-reaching stock reforms have
been introduced in the Indian market for the last few years.
These reforms, in turn, changed market structure. Changing
market structure influences nature of stock price behavior.
PRIMARY SECURITIES
MARKET
The
primary capital market (PCM) plays an important role in the
overall functioning of securities market. Despite several
measures the primary market remained lackluster till
recently and the pick up is gradual. According to the SEBI
annual report fewer number of issues accessed the primary
market during the year and the significantly lower than that
of the Previous financial year. Share of the equity issues,
in terms of number and amount Mobilized, however, was higher
in this financial year compared to the previous one. More
than three-fourths of the total amount was occupied second
and no resourced were in the previous years, banks and
financial institutions continued for 84.5% of the resourced
mobilized compared to 68.1% in 2001-02. All other
industries shared the remaining portion.
CAPITAL
RAISED DURING 2002-03
During
the financial year 2002-03, primary market witnessed a
decrease of 46.0% in the amount raised and also a decrease
of 25.7% in the number of issues launched compared to the
same period in 2001-02. A total of 26 issues (14 public
issues and 12 rights issues) opened during the financial
year 2002-03 raising Rs. 4070.29 crore (Rs. 3638.6 crore
through public issues and 431.6 crore through rights
issues). In 2001-02 a total of 35 issues opened for raising
Rs. 7543.0 crore (20 public issues – Rs. 6501.8 crore and 15
rights issues – Rs. 1041.2).
INDUSTRY
WISE CAPITAL MOBILIZATION
Three
industries ciz. Banks / Fls, Engineering and
Telecommunications accounted for 93.2 per cent of the
resourced mobilized in 2001-02. In the current year, the
same three industries accounted for 84.7 per cent of the
funds raised. With the banks and Fls, increasing their
share from 68.3 per cent to 84.5 per cent and companies in
the Telecommunications sector and raising any resourced. In
2002-03 the three industries which accounted for 95.3 per
cent of the resources where Banking / Fls, Information
Technology, Paper and Pulp.
SECONDARY
MARKET
During
2002-03, performance of Indian Stock market was, by and
large, a lackluster one, S&P CNX NIFTY and BSE Sensex both
registered
negative returns of 13.4 percent and 12.1 percent
respectively over the previous year. Other board
indicators also fell down.
Fall in the market in
not specific too India alone and it appears a global
phenomena. Turnover has been increasing and its reached
peak in the month of December 2002.
DEVELOPMENT
IN GOVERNMENT DEBT MARKET
Government securities
market during the past financial year witnesses significant
upturns in pries until mid-January 2003 when the trend was
reversed. The pattern of downturn in yields was halted due
to the war tensions and consequent uncertainly leading to a
heavy selling pressure. According to the report on Macro
Economic and Monetary Developments in 2002-03 published by
the RBI Major developments in government securities market
in 2002-03 were:
-
Introduction of
the system of publishing a calendar by RBI that
outlines the issue of date government securities
every half-year. The calendar for the financial year
2002-03 was issued in March 2003.
-
Screen based
order driven trading in government securities on the
stock exchanges introduced on January 16, 2003.
-
CSGL
account holders permitted to enter into repo
transactions in government securities effective from
March 3, 2003.
-
Guidelines for
uniform accounting for repo/reverse repo
transactions were issued by RBI.
-
Under the
securities lending scheme, the clearing corporation
of India limited (CCIL) has government securities
from select members.
FII INVESTMENT
Foreign
institutional Investors (FIIS) were net buyers in
equities at Rs. 1 56bn on January 07, 2004. According
to data available from the Securities and Exchange Board
of India (SEBI) web site, their purchases for the day
stood at Rs. 8.0.16bn.
With this, they
have poured in Rs. 15.19bn or US$333.7mn in Indian
equities so far in January. Their cumulative investment
in Indian equities in July stood Rs. 23.46bn or
US$501.7mn. They have pumped in a net of Rs. 15.45mn or
so far in the 2004. In the entire 2002, FIIs had poured
in a net ot Rs36.77bn, or US$763.5mn.
The stock markets
continue its upward surge. By the end of the September
2003 the BSE Sensex has added more than 1300 points and
climbed up to 4302. In fact the pick up in stock prices
in August 2003 has been the highest over the previous
four months of the bull run. The trend continues into
September except for a minor correction in the third
week.
|
WEEKLY
TRENDS IN MAJOR STOCK MARKET INDICES |
|
|
BSE
Sensex |
%
Change |
S&P
CNX Nifty |
%
Change |
|
Aug-1-week |
3815 |
1.2 |
1196 |
1.5 |
|
Aug-2-week |
3806 |
-0.2 |
1196 |
0.0 |
|
Aug-3-week |
3908 |
2.7 |
1241 |
3.7 |
|
Aug-4-week |
4052 |
3.7 |
1292 |
4.1 |
|
Aug-5-week |
4164 |
2.8 |
1325 |
2.6 |
|
Sep-1-week |
4320 |
3.8 |
1378 |
4.0 |
|
Sep-2-week |
4399 |
1.8 |
1402 |
1.7 |
|
Sep-3-week |
4211 |
-4.3 |
1331 |
-5.1 |
|
Sep-4-week |
4302 |
2.2 |
1349 |
1.4 |
|
Source:
Reserve Bank of India |
|